Tradesight Market Preview for 2/1/11
The SP posted an inside day, “measuring” the conviction of the bulls and bears after the price shock on Friday. There were some positive and some negative footprints left on the chart. The days settlement was above the open which is a plus, a dark bodied inside candle would have been very bearish. In the negative column, price was contained in the lower half of the prior candle. All together, after perhaps some month end window dressing, the market put in a classic measuring day. Friday’s low at 1270.50 is the line in the sand. Be sure to have an alarm set for a break under this new key level.
Naz also posted an inside measuring day. The key level is the 62% measured move fib which was used on Friday as the low. A settlement under this level should kick in negative momentum. Also note on the chart the important area where the 50dma, static trend line and regression channel converge.
Multi sector daily chart:
The 10-day NTSE Trin is climbing close to the 1.35 over sold threshold. The Trin is a contra indicator where lower numbers are recorded by bullish activity and higher numbers recorded by bearish trading activity.
The put/call ratio printed above one which is a foot print of traders taking “risk off”, but is well short of the climatic reading seen in late Q2 2010. The chart is actually just starting to change character and curl up after the extreme “risk on” readings in late Dec and early Jan. A trend line has been applied to highlight the breakout in the 10ema over the declining DTL (blue).
Oil was extremely strong, settling at a new two year high. Monday’s candle completed the Seeker exhaustion countdown printing the 13 candle.
Gold was higher early in the morning but became a source of funds settling below Friday’s close. It would be highly unusual if the triple top in place did not put more pressure commodity before a lasting bottom is found. For perspective below is a weekly chart of the YG futures.
The OSX was top gun, +6 on the day. On the weekly chart below Fibonacci extensions have been added to project measured move targets.
The BKX outperformed the broad market but was inside Friday’s range;
BTK was higher by 12;
The SOX posted an inside day, nothing new until the range is resolved.
The XAU is still holding above the static trend line. This is very important support and needs to hold or a waterfall of money exiting gold is in the cards. We’ll examine the intermarket readings later in the week after the month end rollover passes.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/31/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, just one trigger in MBFI long (without market support due to opening five minutes) which didn't work, but it did reach down near the gap, which means you can take again. Triggered later with market support and worked:
In the Messenger, GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered long (with market support once it flipped to green) and worked:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support (not counting the retrigger on MBFI) and both worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 1/31/11
Winner to start the week in the GBPUSD, although pieces of the staggered entry went once and stopped before the rest of the trade triggered if you follow our order entry guidelines. See GBPUSD below, which I'm carrying a piece of long still into the new session.
New calls tonight and Chat.
EURUSD:
USDJPY:
GBPUSD:
Our system teaches staggering orders over 3 or more prices to prevent sweeps, and this is one example of how that helped. At most, 2/3rds of your entry would have triggered at A, stopped at B. The rest triggered at C (or if you were awake, you re-enter anyway); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at D, and I have a stop on the rest under the black line at E (1.5990):
Forex Calls Recap for 1/28/11
Closed the week out on a winning note with two half-sized stop outs overnight ahead of the GDP data, and then a full-sized 40 pip winner. Slightly green day wrapping up a slightly green week that is about to end a red January, our first net negative month in almost three years. Good example for people of why sticking with a system matters statistically.
EURUSD:
USDJPY:
GBPUSD:
Half size overnight ahead of GDP (which, strangely, didn't do anything to the market anyway). Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Back to normal size after the data. Triggered short at C, hit first target at D, closed out final piece around the same area two hours later:
Stock Picks Recap for 1/28/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, LEAP triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work:
PTEN triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
MEOH triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
In the Messenger, RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
AXP triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked for over a point too:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, and all 5 of them worked, very clean day.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/27/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, ISSI gapped over the trigger, no play.
SBAC triggered long by a penny (without market support) and didn't work:
PENN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
BRKS gapped over the trigger, no play.
WERN triggered long (with market support) and worked huge:
ALGN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
PLCE triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, GS triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's DANG triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 3 did not, but the winners were all huge.
Tradesight Market Preview for 1/27/11
The SP recorded a new intraday high on the move but failed to settle at a new high. There is a small gap left on the chart from Tuesday’s close.
Naz was high on the day by 15, slightly outperforming the broad market on a relative basis. The banking index was notable weak, weighing on the SP. Naz didn’t produce a new high on the move as the SP did.
The multi sector daily chart highlights the new high in the OSX and the aggressive bounce in the XAU.
The 10-day Trin advanced to close at 1.20 which leaves it plenty of gas in the tank for higher stock prices.
The OSX was the top performer, making good on the lower tails and breaking to a new high on the move. The next price objective is the 62% fib extension.
The XAU posted a huge bounce off the static trend line. Price may need a measuring day before closing above the 10ema which would turn the chart short term positive. Keep in mind that after a bounce, a close below the recent lows would be very negative and develop genuine downside momentum.
The Cyclical index, CYC, rallied to test the prior high. A new closing high would be good leadership for the broad market.
The BTK was higher by 11:
The SOX was higher by 4;
Sox
The BKX continues to struggle. There has been a lot of talk recently about how good the banks look, but the reality is that they are greatly lagging the energy, agricultural and hard cyclical names. MACD is negative and there is an active Seeker sell signal in place. A break under 52 kicks in a mini H&S pattern and perhaps more importantly puts in a lower high cementing the underperformance vs. the broad market.
Oil bounced but was unable to settle above the prior day’s high:
Gold bounced off the static trend line. The bears are in charge until the 50dma (red) is reclaimed.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/26/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, LBTYA triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked great (never miss a top pick that triggers without a price gap on the stock:
SANM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
LRCX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
FLIR triggered long (with market support) and worked nice:
YHOO triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
We had some Messenger issues today, so we could only put up extra calls in the morning. Wouldn't have wanted to for the second half anyone based on the action.
Rich's JPM triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
His POT triggered long (with market support) and worked for an easy partial, going almost a point on the first push:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 2 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 1/26/11
Unexciting as expected, even after the Fed announcement, which is barely an announcement any more (no surprises). Light range on most of the pairs. We'll see if there's room for some trading tonight before the market gets fixed on Friday's GDP data.
EURUSD:
Barely 80 pips of range:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B on a spike and stopped. Entered again in the morning at the trigger at C, closed at D as it had not reached first target or stop by end of day, even after the Fed:
Stock Picks Recap for 1/25/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, URBN gapped under the trigger, so no play, although it did trigger later and worked a little.
SFSF triggered short (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
In the Messenger, BIDU triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked huge. This is a reciprocal range play for those that have taken the course and a real easy call:
Rich's VMW triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for an easy partial:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not.