Tradesight Stock Picks Recap for 1/18/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Off the report, FULT triggered right at the close, so it doesn't count either way.
FSLR triggered long (without market support) and didn't work, but the retrigger later (with market support) worked great, big winner:
PPDI triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
VCLK triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, AMZN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
CAT and EBAY triggered long very late in the day and didn't have time to go more than a dime, so we won't count them.
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tradesight Market Preview for 1/19/11
The SP advanced 5 handles, making a new high on the move and disqualifying the Seeker 13 countdown exhaustion signal.
Naz was higher by 11 which is a new high on the move and new closing high. The reaction to the AAPL earnings will likely dictate whether the nest Fibonacci extension comes into play at 2383.
Multi sector daily chart:
The $US was weak and the XAU took advantage of a minor oversold condition, to close the day as the top performing sector. There is really nothing new technically, just a small bounce within a downwardly biased sector.
The BTK broke above the first measured move target which puts the Fibonacci next target in play.
The OSX did not respond to the tt candle and traded inline with the performance of the broad market.
The SOX was little changed on the day. There were earning from some of the index members and associated stocks that will influence price Wednesday.
The BKX made good on the tt candle and posted a distribution day. Note that this is not a reversal candle since price was contained within the prior day’s range. Set an alarm for a break under Friday’s low.
Oil continues to consolidate under the 2010 high:
Gold remains above key support at 1350:
Tradesight Forex Calls Recap for 1/18/11
Nice start to the week with two winners, one early and one later, on the GBPUSD. As we teach and I noted both Friday and last night, when you have a 3-day weekend, you want to get those orders in early as the banks come back and make up for lost time. See GBPUSD below.
EURUSD:
USDJPY:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop last night and in the morning and stopped at E. Additional call (for European session due to early trigger) triggered long at C, hit first target at D, also stopped final piece at E:
China: Who's Hu?
Hi Traders,
I hope your long weekend was more than just "long" and you had some BIG fun. You know, it's been interesting watching the current currency debacle. And, you have to wonder where it's all going. Or, maybe you don't care. No matter; but I for one, do. Anyone else?
So, with China's Mr. Hu meeting with the head PooPah in DC this week to talk about trade and finance and "patching things up" with the US, I found this statement REALLY interesting:
"The current international currency system is the product of the past" Hu said in a written response to questions posed by writers ahead of his meeting with the U.S. President today. Highlighting the dollar's importance to global trade, Hu implicitly criticized the Fed's recent decision to pump $600 Billion (QE2) into the U.S. economy, a move criticized as weakening the dollar at the expense of other countries' exports. Hu, went on to say, "The monetary policy of the United States has a major impact on global liquidity and capital flows and therefore, the liquidity of the U.S. dollar should be kept a a reasonable and stable level."
Man of man! That's quite the comment, don't ya think? And, it probably has a lot of merit. After all, have you been watching the yuan!
Oh, and there's this:
"Driven by its huge trade surplus and strengthening currency, China is moving quietly bu swiftly to increase investment in U.S. Manufacturing and real estate. The U.S. is second only to Australia (where they get the majority of their raw materials) as a destination for Chinese investment...".
Is it time to learn how to speak Chinese?
Keep living large!
Clay
Tradesight Market Preview for 1/18/11
Friday, the SP futures were higher by 8 handles, closing at the high of day and the high of the move. Price settled just below the Seeker exhaustion signal disqualifier. Since there is no stronger signal than a failed one, a break above the Seeker risk level will be strong confirmation of continued upward momentum.
Below is a look at the weekly SP. Price is well above the 62% fib, which is often where a trend will terminate. Since price has held above the 62% fib, target 1370 for the next area of Fibonacci resistance.
Naz closed at the high of the week and the high of the move, adding 17 on the day. The next meaningful target is the Fibonacci extension measured from the July low to April high--this projects price to approximately 2383.
The multi sector daily charts shows how the gold stocks have become a source of funds where money is rotating into the higher beta growth sectors like semiconductors and middle cycle stocks like energy. This is a healthy development.
The Put/Call ratio continues to show complacency by the bulls. The broad market advance remains uncorrected since the 12/1/10 breakaway gap.
The 10-day NYSE Trin is getting near the overbought threshold at 0.85 and hasn’t had any relief since Thanksgiving.
The SOX was the top performing sector Friday. Fibonacci extensions have been added to the chart for the next trade-to-target. Keep in mind that some form of corrective activity may be needed before hitting 62% fib.
The BKX hit the next relative fib and now has an active Seeker exhaustion signal in place.
The oil services index closed at a new high on the move, but the news isn’t all good. The OSX has traced out a very powerful 4 bar reversal pattern. This pattern is known in Tradesight vernacular as the “trend termination” pattern. This four bar pattern, highlighted in the red box on the chart, must have two consecutive up days (candles 1 & 2) followed by a negative close that produces a new high intraday (dark body candle 3) then an up candle (4) that completes the pattern. There can be no deviation form the requirements and all of the 4 candles must form one after another without pause. The trend termination pattern is 70% successful in changing the trend when formed at range high.
The BTK is currently consolidating the recent burst under the first measured move target. The chart has the 4 bar trend termination formation but calling Fridays close “at range high” would be dubious.
The CYC index failed to produce a new high and still has a Seeker exhaustion signal in place. This is a cause for concern for the broad market bulls.
The XAU is making good on the Seeker exhaustion signal (red arrow, candle 13) and continues to be a source of funds. Since the decline is technically only 2 bars down, the static trend line (yellow arrow) should be the working trade-to-target.
Oil settled below the 2010 high:
Gold continues to be repelled by the triple top, a break under 1350 (lower red line) could kickoff a full blown selling episode and put the 200dma in play.
Silver, represented by the SLV etf below, is tracing out a head and shoulders pattern. Price projects down to 24.27 if the neckline is broken.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/14/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Off the report, SANM triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
CECO triggered long (with market support) and worked clean for a partial and more:
PWRD triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked over a point:
His AAPL triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's JPM triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, and all of them worked.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/13/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, MRVL triggered long (without market support) and worked great:
RIMM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked great, my big winner for the session:
GILD triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
VCLK triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, Rich's POT triggered long (with market support) and didn't work initially, worked later:
His LULU triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His NVDA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His FCX triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial, worked even better later in the day:
GS triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's NVDA triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His JPM triggered short (with market support) and worked enough:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 3 did not. In this case, I did better off the picks on the report, two of which triggered out of the gate.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/12/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, AONE triggered long (with market support); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES top pick, and worked great:
RDWR triggered long (without market support due to the opening five minutes) and spiked a bit, but very fast, and then reversed:
HGSI triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
VMED triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, Rich's AIG triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial):
KLAC triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's AGU triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
His POT triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked (three very nicely); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES 2 did not.
Tradesight Market Overview for 1/13/11
The SP broke above the trading range, making a new high and closing near the high of day. The pattern is now 12 days up.
Naz also broke to a new high and recorded 9 days up. Note that the Seeker countdown run, currently 10 days up will recycle and erase if the new 1-9 setup completes on or before the 13 countdown candle prints.
Multi sector daily chart:
Below is a special review of some of the key intermarket relationships
The NDX and SPX are trending in harmony, like they should during a sustainable impulse.
The oil services stocks, OSX, are leading the move, currently outperforming the underlying crude futures. There is no divergence present and implies that crude could breakout and sustain the move.
The semiconductor stocks, SOX, have been underperforming the broader NDX for most of the move. The SOX index has recently broken out and is not back in sync with the move. Classic analysis would look for the SOX to lead the NDX and then have the NDX react a move higher. This typical condition has been absent because the NDX has been the leader and the semiconductor stocks have lagged. A rollover in the SOX index could be a rally killer. Intel reports later this week and should influence this important relationship between the NDX and SOX. If the SOX rolls over and turns negative, the intermarket effect could terminate the NDX advance.
The gold mining stocks, XAU, are underperforming the gold futures. If this condition persists, a full blown selloff in gold futures is likely. This is a key divergence and is very typical at inflection points in commodities. The classic intermarket relationship is that the commodity producing stocks will lead the underlying commodity futures until the top. When the top is in progress, the stocks will underperform and diverge from the commodity price, even when the commodity is making new highs. This relationship should be monitored closely. The XAU and gold futures would be a likely source of funds for typical growth asset allocations.
The SOX was top gun on the day, +2%.
The OSX was close behind in performance, up just under 2%.
The BKX closed just shy of a new high:
The broker-dealer index recorded 13 days up.
The XAU was last laggard, the only major sector down on the day.
In the weekly chart of the VIX note that price is coming into key support at the 15 level.
Oil settled at a new high, just under the 2010 high.
Tradesight Forex Calls Recap for 1/12/11
Early trigger on the GBPUSD that worked, not much else set up, although it triggered again overnight and worked again, better the second time. See GBPUSD below.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long early (half size) at A, hit first target at B, raised stop to entry and stopped at C. Note that the short idea was under the Pivot, which hit exactly but did not trigger at D. Triggered long in the morning at E, hit first target at F and beyond:
New calls tonight, but key data the next two days.