Tradesight Stock Picks Recap for 1/11/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
PWER and NUVA and FFIV gapped over their triggers, no play.
EQIX triggered long (without market support due to the opening five minutes) and worked great:
In the Messenger, AMGN triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
Rich's JPM triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's AAPL reciprocal range play triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
SNDK triggered short (without market support) and worked eventually:
Rich's NVDA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for an easy partial:
COST triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tradesight Market Preview for 1/12/11
The SP took back 4 handles settling back at the top, but not breaking out of the range. Note that no 12 was recorded in the Seeker run.
Naz was higher by 3 handles and recorded a camouflage sell signal because price was higher on the day but below the opening level on settlement. This is an indication of distribution, follow through in market leader AAPL will be the swing vote for more weakness.
Multi sector daily chart:
The 10-day NYSE Trin has moved back into the neutral range which means that is neither short term overbought or oversold. This comes from the lateral range that the broad market has traded in for the last few days.
The OSX was the best performer on the day. Price rallied to close at a new high on the move but did not exceed the risk level which leaves the Seeker exhaustion signal active.
The XAU pivoted and bounced back to a key area of convergence where the 10ema and 50dma meet. A close back above these levels turns the chart positive in the micro time frame.
BTK did little:
The BKX is still positive and between fibs.
The SOX advanced and still has an active Seeker exhaustion in place.
The computer hardware index, HWI, is tracing out a rising wedge pattern. Typically, this is a reversal pattern not the continuation variety. Set an alarm for a break under 330 which will put the lower boundary of the pattern in play.
Oil was higher on the day but remains below the 2010 high.
Gold continues to move laterally, nothing new technically. Triple tops are relatively rare but when the reverse price they are potent and long lasting turns.
Tradesight ETF Calls Review for the Week
Rich's segment:
The TBT trade is still on. This week members of the EU will be selling/rolling over debt and this will be a very key event for world markets. Portugal, Italy and Spain will all be selling government paper which will likely make all the debt markets volatile. No additions or reductions to the current long position will be made unless a new high is recorded.
The VXX has been targeted as a trading vehicle. Long calls were made at point
A over 36.60, B at 35.83 and C at 37 which all worked for partial profit opportunities. Moving into earnings season, look for volatility to expand and the VXX to rise.
FAS triggers short under 29.90 and later in the week under 28.84.
GDX triggered short under 56.40 and didn’t work even for a partial.
OIH triggered short under 137 and worked only enough for a partial profit before reversing with the market.
Tradesight segment:
Big winner in IWM this week with a short at A, covered half at B, and covered the remaining at C for over a point total winner. I was looking for a rollover in the market on the third day of the year:
QQQQ strangle is now in place at $55.50:
Another IWM trade triggered short at A and stopped at B, then triggered again later in the day with small results:
Tradesight Forex Calls Recap for 1/10/11
With Japan closed, there was a fairly slow start to the week again. We have one trade still going from the calls. See GBPUSD below. New calls tonight and Chat. All pairs were under average daily range.
EURUSD:
Barely 80 pips of range here:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, moved stop under the entry and holding. Hasn't hit the first target yet:
Tradesight Stock Picks Recap for 1/10/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
XRTX triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial and held in the money:
In the Messenger, Rich's AAPL short triggered (without market support) and didn't work:
My NFLX long triggered (without market support due to the opening five minutes) and worked huge:
Rich's REE triggered long (without market support) and doesn't count either way because it didn't go even ten cents in either direction:
My AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for an easy partial:
Rich's MS triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
My GS triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not. The bigger winners were actually in NFLX and AMZN.
Tradesight Market Preview for 1/11/11
The SP saw a small loss Monday, losing just 2 points from Friday’s close. The current technicals are a mixed bag. On the positive side, price settled above the 10ema and the days open but on the negative side, settlement was negative on the day. Also, note that Monday’s rage was contained within Friday’s range which makes for an inside day and loads the pattern with energy. Lines have been added to the chart to delineate the current trading range.
Naz was higher by 9 handles on the day making both a new high and new high close on the move. The markets were bifurcated from the opening, with Naz, powered by AAPL, outperforming the broad market early and holding the relative performance advantage. Naz leading the broad market is always a favorable condition for the bulls. That is until a new high recorded in the Naz and then the SP ultimately cannot. This is often where key inflections are found. Monday, the Naz made a new high but the SP did not which is not a problem unless the SP just cannot muster a fresh push higher. There is also another interesting technical development from the latest candle on the chart. The dreaded 4 bar Trend Termination Pattern has completed. If price settles below Monday’s low, expect follow on selling.
Leadership in the multi sector daily chart is coming from the SOX:
The NYSE cumulative A/D line has slipped below the current price of the SP500. Traders need to keep on top of this because the cumulative A/D LEADS price.
The SOX was top gun leading all other key sectors. Note that Monday’s candle completed the Seeker 1-13 exhaustion run.
The XAU outperformed the broad market but is only 5 days down. Set an alarm under the recent lows for the completion of the 9 bar drop.
Broker-dealers are at the prior high water mark and only bone day away from a Seeker exhaustion signal. Pay special attention to the next couple of closes in the XBD, a 13 exhaustion signal at a double top would be a very high probability inflection point. The pattern is currently 12 days up.
BKX traded inside the Friday’s range, closing right at the 10ema. Set an alarm for a break under 52.07 which would turn the momentum negative.
Consumer durables broke below the prior low, keep in mind that he Seeker 13 exhaustion signal is active.
The XAL is gaming the rising wedge break level but is now 8 days up.
The OSX underperformed the broad market and contines to move laterally under the Seeker exhaustion risk level. This can only be characterized as a distribution day especially in light of the strength in crude.
The BTK was the last laggard closing under the 10ema.
Oil remains under the 2010 high:
Gold was slightly lower on the day and made a lower low on the move:
COT: 1-7-11
Hi Traders,
The first week back from the holiday break was somewhat uneventful; but, historically, it takes a couple of weeks for money flows to pick-up this time of year. Of course, there was the Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP) on Friday, which so many of us look forward to—almost as if it’s some kind of celebration: “Happy NFP Friday!” we exclaim as we swap presents and raise our glasses for a toast….
Okay, maybe not. But you get the point: the markets tend to pay attention to this, the mother or all reports. And this past one was interesting, but only because there were those in DC and the media saying that 103,000 jobs and an alleged drop from 9.7% to 9.4% was real “progress”. Of course, even though it’s not reported, half of the .4% can be attributed to those who fell off the unemployment rolls (that’s what happens after six-moths) and those who just stopped looking for work. Oh brother. And…
Just in case you’re wondering, according to ShadowStats.com, the real unemployment figure in the US is about 23%. But I digress.
(Get this week's COT charts here.)
About the COT charts, the specs have been buying AUD, CHF, NZD, and JPY. That said, the specs and commercials have been clearly, and more or less decisively, taking AUD and CHF in opposite directions and toward extremes.
Remember, we like when the specs and commercials are at polar opposites, as this often gives us a heads up on a pending major market turn. Also, the specs have been buying JPY and NZD, too, but the commitment to sell the JPY and NZD by the commercials isn’t as well-defined as with AUD and CHF (JPY Is clearer than NZD).
The picture for USD is a bit muddy; obviously no group is overly excited about buying the US dollar, at least not yet. Can we blame them? Still, the almighty dollar (or is that “once mighty”?) stands to make more gains in the future… the shorter term future, that is--more on this another time. Regardless, a USD rally is welcomed, even if the reasons for it happening don’t make much sense fundamentally.
The specs are still buying the shiny metals, gold and silver, and the commercials don’t appear to be overly-committed to selling it. No “extremes” here, so I’m not looking for the bottom to fallout. That said, it doesn’t mean one or both might experience a selloff. Watch your daily price charts and pay attention to the divergence between rising or maintained prices and momentum (I use MACD for this).
That’s if for now.
Trade to trade well,
Clay
Stock Picks Recap for 1/6/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Off of the report, SLAB triggered long (without market support due to the opening five minutes, but you never miss a top pick like that) and worked huge:
BEAV triggered long (without market support) and worked:
In the Messenger, Rich's AAPL triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
KLAC triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's SLW triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
His GS triggered short (with market support) and worked for more than enough for a partial:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial, which we took in the Lab:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for an easy partial:
Rich's FFIV triggered long (with market support, briefly) and did not work:
AAPL triggered short in the afternoon (with market support) and worked enough for a partial this time:
AEO triggered but didn't have time enough to work or not work, so doesn't count.
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Market Preview for 1/6/11
The January effect is a widely known phenomenon that proposes as goes January, so goes the rest of the year. It’s kind of a grand assumption, very long term in perspective, and its accuracy and usefulness is debatable. There is a much shorter time frame January phenomenon that is technically more potent. The current design of the broad market is one of a strong upward bias that has not had any corrective action since the beginning of the current impulse on December 1, 2010 (point A). Price has advanced approximately 75 points without any meaningful test of the bulls conviction to their long positions. This advance is often viewed as an extension of the seasonal December rally and leaves the pattern ripe for correction. The micro January effect goes as follows: When the preceding December has been upwardly biased and the first three days of the following January is up, more times than not, the bias will turn negative sometime on or after the fourth trading day of January.
Note that in the daily chart of the SP futures below, price has met the criteria for the micro January effect and at point B on the chart, price is at range high and stretched well above the 10ema. If a downward bias develops, avoid buying the first break, the money to be made should be on the short side.
Naz closed at a new high and like the SP, has the same micro January condition described above.
Multi sector daily chart, note the relative weakens in the XAU:
The put/call recorded a very low close. This is an indication of extreme complacency by the bulls.
The cumulative NYSE A/D line is no longer leading price in the daily time frame. There is no divergence present, but the broad market doesn’t have the internal safety net that it enjoyed for the majority of the advance from July through December 2010.
As discussed in the previous report oil was not expected to follow through to the downside Wednesday and it did not. Oil was higher on the day but unable to reclaim the 10ema or the 2010 high. The next breakdown should be sold and aggressive traders can look to sell rallies.
Gold was lower on the day and for the first time since August settled below the 50dma. The Seeker sell signal is still active. A break under 1360 puts 1325 in play.
XAL was the top performing sector, settling right at the top of the falling wedge pattern. Overweight this sector for long ideas.
The BKX outperformed the broad market and is closing in on the next fib target. The seeker count is on day 11 of the 13 needed for an exhaustion signal.
The OSX was higher by 3 on the day but is in the beginning of some corrective activity until the exhaustion signal risk level is exceeded.
The CYC cyclical index registered a Seeker 13 exhaustion signal.
The BTK remains rage bound:
The CMR consumer index recorded 12 days up, one proper candle from an exhaustion reading.
The SOX is moving sideways consolidating the recent breakout. Nothing new until the range is broken.
The XAU was last laggard. Price closed below the 50dma and is just beginning to feel the effects of the Seeker sell signal.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/5/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Off the report, SPMD triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
LEAP triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
TQNT triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
SYNA triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
ROST triggered short (without market support due to opening five minutes) and actually worked for a point, but had to be quick:
BMRN gapped under the short trigger, no play.
In the Messenger, GS triggered long (with market support) and we'll say it didn't work because it pulled back $0.50 before working later:
Rich's POT triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
RIMM triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Big day overall. In total, that's 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not.