Stock Pick Recap for 11/10/10
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, AEIS (with market support) didn't do anything either way:
THOR short (with market support) didn't work:
In the Messenger, Rich's AAPL triggered short (with market support) didn't work:
But the later trigger in AAPL at a lower price (with market support) worked enough for a gain:
Rich's PCLN short (with market support) worked great:
Rich's LVS (with market support) worked great:
The afternoon AAPL long (with market support) worked enough for a partial:
But the AMGN long (with market support) didn't:
And the AMZN long (with market support) was a dead even wash:
So that totals up eight triggers with market support, 2 of which literally did nothing either way. The others were split, 3 worked and 3 didn't.
Forex Calls Recap for 11/10/10
No complaints so far about this week. Two triggers this session, two clean winners. Be even better if one would keep going, but we'll take it. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.
We will post Levels and calls tonight, but keep in mind that France, Canada, and the US have Bank Holidays tomorrow, so there isn't much chance of a move.
EURUSD
Triggered short under LBreak (a key Gann Level in this case) at A, hit first target at B, closed second half at C:
GBPUSD
Triggered long over UBreak (a key Gann Level) at A, hit first target at B, raised stop and stopped at C:
For a complete look at all ten of the pairs that we cover and how the Levels played out against them, take a trial of our Forex service.
Globex Boundaries in Index Futures Play
Globex Boundaries in Index Futures Play …
One of the first things I do when preparing for Index Futures trade ahead of the regular session open, is draw in the evening sessions upper and lower price limits (the Globex high and low). Then I look for where the pre-market price action ‘is’ and where ‘it’s been’ and see IF I can determine a trend bias.
In today’s pre-market evaluation the Globex price action was contained roughly by the Key Level Pivot (1213.92) and the Globex Low that had been challenged early in the session at (1208).
Soon after the bell the market bias turned recognizably lower, so the first order of play was to see if the ‘tested’ Globex Level would breakdown for a short. It did giving us our first ES Index Futures Short play for the morning with a nice profit following Tradesight management guidelines.
It pays to plot the Globex boundaries and use them as any other Key Level especially when they work in combination with other Key Levels…
Stock Picks Recap 11/09/10
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Amazingly, nothing triggered off of the report.
In the Messenger, GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's NFLX triggered long (without market support) and worked:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and worked, although it didn't go far:
Rich's MEE triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
FSLR triggered short (with market support) and didn't do much, but certainly didn't go against the trade:
Rich's SLW triggered short (with market support) and worked:
So six trades triggered with market directional support at the time of the trigger, and all six worked.
GDX Call from ETF Report
Today, we were looking for a reversal in Gold, potentially the start of a significant shift, after Gold gapped up. The 15-minute and hourly charts were showing signs of being overbought, and the 5-minute chart formed a double-top formation. The low of the opening 5-minute bar was addressed on the pullback exactly at 62.80, and a short inverted cup and handle had formed by one hour into the market. The trade call was a short under 62.80 with a stop over 63.22 which triggered on the break of the line on the chart at A:
This led to up to a 2-point winning move in the GDX with almost no risk at any point. We look to potentially keep a piece of the trade into tomorrow's action, having locked in a nice profit on a piece of the trade and having virtually no risk (except in the case of an even bigger gap up tomorrow). Have a look at the ETF service for more general index plays such as this one.
Stock Market Index Preview for 11/09/10
The ES continues to consolidate the recent breakout. 1216.50, which is the prior high from April has been tested and has so far held. Note that there is still a large gap just below on the chart.
Naz was higher by 2 handles. A measured move target has been added to the chart. This is calculated by measuring the energy loaded in the chart on the most recent decline. This is from the April high to July low on a closing basis. Fibonacci extensions have been added to calculate the target.
Note how the XAU is getting extended in the multi sector daily chart:
The XAU was top gun up 2.5% on the day. The pattern is extended and loaded with complacent bulls.
The OSX was very strong, outperforming the broad market even in the face of a stronger dollar. The April 2010 high is the next level to watch for.
The SOX did very little almost posting an inside day. The topping tails from the last two sessions are a little concerning.
The BTK which has been consolidating sideways may soon get a lift from the up sloping 50dma.
The BKX was likely the chief culprit for the decline in the broad market. The pattern has penetrated and taken out the DTL (red) but is finding resistance at the 200dma. Since today’s candle was an inside day a break above the 200dma 48.83 could trigger some nice follow through.
Oil is right at the 2010 highs:
Gold continues to pound higher--new highs on the move were recorded.
The Put/Call ratio is getting complacent but has yet to record a climatic reading.
Stock Picks Recap 11/08/10
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Off of the report, we had several trades trigger in the opening five minutes, so they had no market support as it is not yet determined.
WBSN (without market support in the opening 5 minutes) triggered long and worked:
GXDX (without market support) triggered long and didn't work, but it held in the money for hours to give you time to adjust stop tight or get out:
LULU (without market support in the opening five minutes) triggered long and worked:
DNDN (without market support in the opening five minutes) triggered short and worked:
In the Messenger, AMZN (with market support) triggered short and worked:
Rich's LVS (with market support) triggered long and worked:
RIMM (without market support) triggered long and eventually worked, technically swept it once first, no market support either way:
Rich's MEE short (without market support) triggered and worked:
Rich's AKAM long (with market support) didn't work:
AMZN long (with market support) worked enough for a partial:
So a lot of trades triggered, and the ones off of the report worked great. However, due to a fairly flat day and some very early triggers, only 4 trades triggered with market support. Three of those worked.
COT 11-05-10
Good Morning,
It's a chilly one here in Tampa Bay; I actually had to turn the heat on last night! Not a bad thing; in fact, I enjoy it... as long as socks don't become a necessity. So far, so good!
Onto the COT (click here). Man, watching USD this past week was brutal. It got no love. And, it's treading water, hoping...just hoping... someone will toss it a lifeline. Is one coming? I can't say at this point that there's a lifeline on the way. But, maybe, just maybe, a pair of those goofy, florescent arm floaties are sitting by the side of the pool and some kind-hearted lifeguard will kick them into the water. Let's hope.
That said, with all the bad news surrounding USD, it might be prudent to think "contrarian". I mean, everyone and their great aunt Nellie is kicking sand in the dollar's face. And, hey, you can't blame 'em. But, when this happens, we're usually (i.e., "historically") getting near a top (or bottom).
Why? Because the GENERAL PUBLIC is always LATE TO THE PARTY or just flat-out WRONG. The mainstream media is the same--after all, one feeds the other. It's a sick, co-dependent relationship.
Somethings to consider:
AUD hit parity with the dollar, but the specs are going short and commercials long. Swissy, USD Index, gold and silver too. What gives? I mean, wouldn't you think just the opposite would be happening? Could COT be telling us something? I think it might be.
GBP and NZD are at extremes, with the commercials net short and specs net long. So, I'm looking for a potential top. Of course, these things can take awhile and time is not on the side of USD. I mean, even if those floaties make it into the pool, they're only going to work if there's air in them.
A quick note on EURUSD. It broke out of a pennant formation (Daily) and is on it's way to a .786 Fibonacci retracement from last year's high. And, the pennant projection aligns perfectly with this price level and a monthly pivot; so, I like the target.
Oh, about Friday's Non-Farm payrolls number...
How is it the US added 151,000 jobs last month (way beyond expectations) but the unemployment rate didn't budge? Is it me, or does anyone else thing something isn't adding-up?
Okay, it's time for a cup of coffee to take this icy edge off. Make the rest of your weekend GREAT.
Be well and live large,
Clay
Stock Picks Recap from 11/04/10
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
SYNA opened at the trigger, pulled back to fill the gap, then triggered (with market support) and worked:
NTRS triggered (no market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
FITB gapped over, no play.
In the Messenger, Rich's BIIB long (with market support) triggered and worked:
GS short (without market support) didn't work, but the long (with market support) did:
WFMI triggered long (with market support) worked:
Rich's AAPL long (with market support) worked for over a point clean:
AMZN triggered short (without market support) and had a rough start but ultimately worked (was against the market anyway):
And Rich's FCX long (with market support) worked:
That totals six triggers with market support, all of them worked.
Stock Market Index Preview for 11/4/10
The SP moved to another new high adding 4 on the day. Price settled right at the risk level from the exhaustion signal. If that level gets taken out, then the April high of 1216.50 is in play.
Naz was higher by 14 decisively closing at a new high. As of today’s close, the pattern is 9 days up completing the 9-13-9 pattern.
Multi sector daily chart:
The BKX was top gun up 2% on the day. A DTL (red) had been added to the chart. This defines the current down trend. A close above the DTL will be the first indication of a reversal. Confirmation would be a settlement above the 200dma (aqua).
The SOX settled right at the static trend line. The pattern is at key resistance an has just completed a 1-9 setup.
BTK was slightly stronger than the broad market but remains range bound. There is nothing new technically because it didn’t close above the prior high of the move.
The OSX was higher on the day but didn’t trade above Tuesday’s high. Today’s candle recorded the 13th bar of the exhaustion run. A price flip or close under the 10ema will validate the sell signal.
The XAU was last laggard and was a source of funds. This is a very crowded long trade and needs to be monitored for short opportunities.
Oil broke above the prior high:
Gold was lower on the day with the 13 exhaustion signal still on deck.
The big action on the day was in the bond market. Following the FOMC announcement, the bonds got hit very hard. In the chart below the TLT which is etf for the long dated US Treasury bonds broke to new lows and had a huge volume spike. Money rotating out of the bonds and into stocks would be a very important development. The money flows into bonds has been huge while there has been no money flowing into stocks.
