Forex Picks Recap from 11/03/10
A loser and a bigger winner overnight, and then what ended up being a non-reaction to the Fed's QE2 announcement. See GBPUSD below.
New calls and Chat tonight. Two more trading days until US time change. But who's counting.
Our calls were in the GBP/USD, one long and one short as usual. Both entries were through our proprietary Break levels (red lines on the chart). The short triggered (point A) and did not work (our stops are 25 pips); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES but the long triggered (point B) and worked great, hitting our first target at R1 at C and then on to R2. Final piece stopped based on our adjustment at D in the morning:
None of the other pairs had a trigger that we called, and there were no Value Area plays.
Stock Picks Recap 11/03/10
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Not much off of the calls in the report given the day's flatness and malaise ahead of the Fed.
From the report, WFMI triggered long (without market support); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and didn't work:
In the Messenger, Rich's OPEN short (without market support as it was in the opening 5 minutes) worked:
AMZN triggered short twice (both with market support); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES didn't work the first time (what we call a "sweep") and worked the second:
Meanwhile, Rich's AMZN long idea later in the day (with market support) worked great, very clean after Fed:
His MGM triggered long (without market support) right at the Fed and didn't work:
In total, only three triggers with market support, and two of them worked.
Tradesight Market Preview for 11/03/10
The SP made a new high and new high close on the move adding 10 handles. The 13 exhaustion signal is still active until price exceeds the risk level (magenta). Expect a gap tomorrow morning after the ADP number is released premarket.
Naz advance 21 making a new high on the move. The Seeker is 8 days up in a new setup which means that if the pattern prints the 9th candle the chart will have a 9-13-9 in place. The typical setup for a reversal is just the 1-9 setup phase, followed by the 1-13 countdown phase. After the completion of the two phases price will usually reverse. However, sometimes in a very bullish move, just the two phases are not enough to reverse a very strong trend. This is when the first two phases need reinforcement from a third phase. A third, reinforcing phase is about to complete and will do so as soon as the 9th green bar prints and completes the third phase of the run.
Multi sector daily chart:
Just for perspective, take a look at the very long term monthly chart of the Dow. The Dow has major, major resistance at the 11,500 area. At all three points on the chart, A, B and C this area is stiff resistance and is also the real breakout. A new secular bull market will be in the delivery room above 11,500 and born when a new high above 14.192 is recorded.
The OSX was top gun on the day, plowing new high ground. The next level that will come into play is the 2009 high just overhead.
Nothing much to take away from the action in the BTK, the pattern is still range bound.
The Dow Jones transport index is right at the prior high. The Dow Theory crowd will be monitoring this closely.
The SOX posted a small gain on the day. Set an alarm for a break over the Q2 highs 377.50 (arrows). Since price is coming into a static trend line and is also 8 days up, this is a very likely area for some corrective activity.
The XAU is now 10 days up in the exhaustion countdown.
The BKX was last laggard and remains a source of funds. Keep in mind that when the dollar sees some strength again they will come for the bank stocks.
Oil closed near the high of the recent range and also recorded a new high close for the move.
Gold continues to grind in the area of the retest of the prior high. The 13 exhaustion signal remains on deck.
Tradesight Stock Picks Recap for 11/02/10
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
The market was so flat today that just about everything could be viewed equally as having or not having market support since nothing happened at all.
ASIA triggered (with market support); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES worked great:
TTWO triggered (with market support); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES was working, no problems, but ran out of time:
In the Messenger, Rich's NFLX (no market support due to triggering in opening 5 minutes) worked nice:
COST triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's FTNT triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His WYNN long triggered (with market support) and worked, although late in the day:
So the results once again, 5 trades triggered with market support, 4 worked.
Today's GBPUSD Calls...Why You Need Plays in Both Directions
One of the main things we teach at Tradesight is that it isn't our job to guess which way the market is going to go. It's our job to find the best technical setups either way and be prepared to take advantage. Last night's action was particularly interesting in this regard as the GBPUSD calls were 80 pips apart (long entry for weakness in the USD versus short entry for strength in the USD). Both were using the "FX-aligned Pivot series," or to be precise, a long over R1 and a short under S1. Ultimately, the long entry was tested to the pip but never triggered, while the short play, over 80 pips away, triggered a short time later and worked. Not only did it work, but the first target on the play was S2, which hit to the pip. So in a window of a couple of hours, the GBPUSD move from R1 to S2, about 120 pips, and address one entry without triggering while later using the other precisely.
Here is a recap from today's report:
After inching up and stopping right at the long trigger at A, the GBPUSD dropped sharply and actually triggered the short at B, hit the first target at C exactly, and stopped the second half at D. Quite a use of the Levels:
Again, not our job to judge, just our job to spot key entries.
Also, I'd like to welcome everyone to our new website. Have a look around.
Stock Market Index Overview for 11/2/2010
The ES was higher on the day by 3 handles. Since the day’s candle was positive but settled under the open, a camouflage sell signal was recorded. Note that the MACD has been at an extreme high level for some time and is beginning to leak.
Naz made a new high and new closing high on the move, adding 7 points to the run. Like the SP, the Naz posted a camouflage sell signal.
Multi sector daily chart:
The 10-day Trin is neutral at about 1.1 which means it is neither overbought nor oversold.
The OSX was the top performing sector. The day’s range made a new high on the move but didn’t settle at a new high.
The XAU is retesting the prior high which is where many short sellers make their living. If price rolls over and takes out the October lows, the shorts will get proactive.
The SOX posted a sloppy candle. Nearly, but not quite qualifying as an “outside day down”. An outside day down would have been recorded if the close was below the real body of the prior candle.
The biotech’s remain range bound—-nothing new technically.
The BKX continues to sport a downside bias. Price matched the prior low close in mid October.
Oil moved back up near the top of the recent trading range.
Gold was slightly lower on the day. Note that the price pattern has an exhaustion signal on deck. The next candle that settles at or above the close of the red number 8 candle (10/13/10) will register a 13 exhaustion sell signal.
Tradesight Stock Picks Recap from 11/1/2010
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
MRVL triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
QCOM triggered long (with market support) and also worked enough for a partial:
RIMM triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
AMGN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
His ITRI triggered shrot (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, six triggered with market support, and all 6 worked (3 just enough for a partial and 3 very well). 100% day, plus the RIMM worked too.
Tradesight Stock Picks Review from 10/29/10
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Hard to measure market direction on a day that was so flat and inside a 5 point range on the ES, but we will use the tool and go from there.
NVLS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
XRAY triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, Rich's FSLR (with market support) triggered long and worked for over a point and a half, which is more than enough for a partial:
GOOG short (without market support) worked:
GS short (without market support) triggered late in the day and worked:
Rich's V long (with market support) worked:
In total, three trades triggered with market support and all three worked despite the slow session.
Tradesight Small Cap Picks Review for Fourth Week of October
We had three trades trigger off of the Small Cap report for the second half of the week. Two worked great.
VLNC didn't work:
ANAD worked terrific, nice move for a $6 stock:
TQNT worked great too, clean move:
There are three calls for the new report to start November.
Tradesight Stock Picks Review for 10/27/10
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
VRTX triggered (without market support) but ended up working fine once the market did turn up in the afternoon:
ASIA triggered long (with market support) and worked for more than an easy partial:
PRWD triggered (without market support) and didn't work:
CAVM triggered (without market support since it was in the first 5 minutes of play) and worked, including a huge move in the afternoon:
ADTN triggered short (without market support) and worked, especially once the market turned to the downside a little later:
In the Messenger, AMGN triggered (with market support) and didn't work (we need $0.20 for a partial, didn't quite get there):
COST triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's EQIX triggered short (with market support) and worked for $0.50, an easy partial:
His NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
His FCX triggered short (with market support) and worked:
A beautiful pattern in EBAY waited until the last 6 minutes to trigger, so we won't count it:
No other calls triggered. That totals seven trades that triggered with market support (those are typically the ones we suggest taking) and six worked at least for a partial, most of them much better.