Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for December 2014
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 56.5%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +180 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2015
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 43.4%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row
Net pips: -50 pips
An interesting month. It started out extremely good and we were up 155 pips in the first 10 days with only one loser. We then had a couple of back and forth trades, and then the Swiss National Bank threw their surprise curveball into the mix, shocking the markets with the mother of all spikes. Although we had a couple of winners after that (and a couple of the trades ended up working if you were awake to take them a second time), it shouldn’t go without notice that everything changed after the Swiss move. We haven’t lost 6 trades in a row in over 2 years, and we ended the month on a 6-loser run, costing us 135 pips. I don’t expect that this is suddenly normal. The ranges are still fine. The market is just behaving a little less technically, probably as a result of what happened. It’s still a small blip compared to the results of 2014.