Futures Calls Recap for 3/5/13
Nice setup on the ES stopped once, then triggered on news, which is never what we want to see. It was a lazy day overall, although volume hit 1.7 billion on the NASDAQ. See ES below.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 1536.50 after setting the R2 level, but stopped exactly to the tick for 7 ticks loss. I stated it was valid again, but it triggered in the next bar on the better than expected ISM data and faded back. When it hadn't done anything for ten minutes, I closed it at the entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 3/5/13
Our GBPUSD trigger from late yesterday hit the first target after the report was posted and was closed in today's session about 60 pips in the money. EURUSD triggered and stopped. See both sections below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped:
GBPUSD:
After hitting the first target yesterday, we adjusted the stop twice including once Tuesday morning under 1.5137, and that stopped in the money by almost 60 pips at A:
Stock Picks Recap for 3/4/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ISIS triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's CELG triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
FSLR triggered short twice (both without market support), didn't work the first time, worked the second):
A second trigger on FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's SINA triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't work, worked great later:
Mark's GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 2 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 3/4/13
A trade that we closed at the entry due to lack of market interest and volume, and that was it. See the ES section below.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A, but closed at B after 45 minutes of the market doing nothing over lunch on no volume. There was just no reason to trade or stick with it. The better entry would have been the long over UBreak at C, but since volume was so poor, we didn't call it:
Futures Calls Recap for 3/4/13
A trade that we closed at the entry due to lack of market interest and volume, and that was it. See the ES section below.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A, but closed at B after 45 minutes of the market doing nothing over lunch on no volume. There was just no reason to trade or stick with it. The better entry would have been the long over UBreak at C, but since volume was so poor, we didn't call it:
Forex Calls Recap for 3/4/13
A loser and a trade still going on the GBPUSD to start the week. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B pretty late in the session, we've moved a stop under the Pivot and holding to see what happens:
Forex Calls Recap for 3/4/13
A loser and a trade still going on the GBPUSD to start the week. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B pretty late in the session, we've moved a stop under the Pivot and holding to see what happens:
Tradesight February 2013 Futures Results
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 42.8%
Net ticks: -19.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 60.0%
Net ticks: +24 ticks
This was a much better month than the last one. We still saw three or four trades that stopped out the first time and then worked the second, which impacts the results. At the same time, ranges were better and volume stayed up most of the month. Our win ratio was high. Again, most of the sample calls that we put up for these results were in the ES, although a few were in the NQ and ER. Ranges have expanded on the contracts, although the NASDAQ market remains flatlined where it started the year as the battle of "money out of AAPL" and "money into GOOG" continues to hold the index in place. There were also several days where no calls triggered in the middle of the month around options expiration and the President's Day holiday. Without that, we might have had a few more winners to add to the pot. Overall, though, no complaints.
We move forward to March.
Tradesight February 2013 Futures Results
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 42.8%
Net ticks: -19.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 60.0%
Net ticks: +24 ticks
This was a much better month than the last one. We still saw three or four trades that stopped out the first time and then worked the second, which impacts the results. At the same time, ranges were better and volume stayed up most of the month. Our win ratio was high. Again, most of the sample calls that we put up for these results were in the ES, although a few were in the NQ and ER. Ranges have expanded on the contracts, although the NASDAQ market remains flatlined where it started the year as the battle of "money out of AAPL" and "money into GOOG" continues to hold the index in place. There were also several days where no calls triggered in the middle of the month around options expiration and the President's Day holiday. Without that, we might have had a few more winners to add to the pot. Overall, though, no complaints.
We move forward to March.
Tradesight February 2013 Forex Results
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +10
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 60.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +325
Any way you look at it, this was a great month. If you had four of these a year, you'd be set. The win ratio was high, and even the max losing streak of 2 in a row was something we hadn't seen for a while. And, it didn't just come down to one or two plays. We had several trades that finally carried over between days and went for bigger gains, which makes sense when you look at the US Dollar Index and the movement that it finally saw. This is what Forex trading should be like.
In general, ranges have expanded, and while I wouldn't say that we are back to the GBPUSD seeing 150 pips and EURUSD seeing 130 pips that we expect on average over time, it's still much better than the EURUSD getting 75 pips or so every night. There really haven't been too many nights outside of Holidays where ranges were that horrible. Let us hope that this continues into March.